The Pernicious Effects of Uncertainty on Municipal Climate Action

How elected officials make policy in an uncertain context is insufficiently understood. To fill that gap, this research examines how much uncertainty impacts climate action in large U.S. cities. We sent a survey to all elected officials in U.S. cities with populations >100,000, querying their level of climate uncertainty and their support for climate policies. To analyze the results, we use a structural equation model with a robust and novel measure of climate uncertainty and then examine the direct and indirect effects of climate uncertainty on a policymakers’ propensity to support climate action. We find that municipal elected officials are generally supportive of climate action, though their support varies substantially based on their partisan affiliations and views about the appropriate role of government. Increased climate uncertainty diminishes support for action. These findings suggest the importance of communicating the robustness and co-benefits of climate policies.